Antarctic E-commerce (002127): Operating quality has steadily improved and the monetization rate has performed well. Maintain Buy rating
Investment Highlights: The company’s GMV increased by 65 in 2018.
5% reached USD 20.5 billion, and the highest monetization rate was stable.
1) 18-year profit growth of 65.
9%.
The company realized revenue in 201833.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 240 in ten years.
1%; net profit achieved 8.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 65 in ten years.
9%.
2) Net profit in the fourth quarter increased by 49.
6%.
The company achieved revenue in the fourth quarter of 201813.
10,000 yuan, an annual increase of 123.
9%; Net profit 4.
40,000 yuan, an increase 重庆耍耍网 of 49 in ten years.
6%.
Among them, 3) GMV has a high growth and a stable monetization rate.
The company’s headquarters business achieved a total of 99 GMV in the fourth quarter.
8 ppm, a 68-year increase of 68.
7%; company headquarters 5.
3 ‰, an increase of 70 in ten years.
0%.
In terms of monetization rate, we have calculated an increase in monetization in 18 years to replace 4.
.
6%, the monetization rate in the fourth quarter is about 4.
.
8%, which is stable compared with the same period last year, and the performance of the monetization rate exceeded expectations.
The inclusion of the three major platforms GMV in 18Q4 accelerated, and the Antarctic brand grew significantly faster than expected.
1) In terms of platforms, 18Q4 company Ali channel GMV reached 72.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 65 in ten years.
0%; Jingdong channel GMV reached 16.
1 ppm, an increase of 62 in ten years.
6%; GMV of Pinduoduo Channel reached 8.
3 ‰, a year-on-year increase of 110%, an increase from earlier quarters.
2) In terms of brands, the Antarctic brand GMV reached 89 in the brand group of the 18Q4 company.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 72 in ten years.
2%, exceeding expectations; Cardile brand GMV reached 8.
7 ‰, an increase of 45 in ten years.
2%.
3) In terms of categories, underwear, men’s clothing, and home textiles accounted for 29.
9%, 16.
2%, 14.
9%, the head category has maintained a medium and high speed growth.
The scale of accounts receivable is effectively controlled, and the repayment situation is good at the end of the year.
The 2018 annual report estimates the net value of accounts receivable7.
20,000 yuan, down by 3 from the third quarter report of 2018.
600 million.
In terms of the brand’s comprehensive service business, the scale of accounts receivable in 2018.
200 million, an increase of 24 from the end of 2017.
The growth rate of business receivables in this division was much lower than the growth rate of revenues, and the repayment situation further improved.
For factoring business, accounts receivable in 20181.
7 trillion, the previous three quarterly report of 18 fell by 2.
900 million, the end of the year of factoring repossession was controlled.
In terms of time interconnection business, accounts receivable in 20181.
2 ‰, down by 1 in the first three quarters of 2018.
500 million.
Initially, the operating cash flow of the company’s headquarters business.
800 million, an increase of 13 in ten years.
7%.
The online Matthew effect is strengthened, and the ecological moat of the system is continuously deepening.
1) Eight categories are in the top ten in Ali.
In 2018, the company ranked top 10 in the Alibaba platform industry in eight first-level categories including underwear, bedding, men’s clothing, baby clothes, popular men’s shoes, pregnant women’s products, home furnishings, and clothing accessories.The category market share increased steadily.
2) The former budget resources are further gathered.
Front-end distribution swaps.In 2018, the total number of dealers in the company’s system reached 4,186, an increase of 759 from the end of 17; the number of online stores for dealers grew to 5,535, and an increase of 1093.
The average value of production and manufacturing, the number of company suppliers reached 866 in 2018, an increase of 20, and the supply chain system has both “high quality and low price” and “quick response” capabilities, supporting the optimization of the turnover efficiency of the supplier system, and achieving a healthy business ecologydevelopment of.
3) Steady development of time interconnection.
In 2018, the number of connected customers exceeded 1300, and was selected as the exclusive agent of the Xiaomi channel e-commerce industry in 2019.
The company’s annual report performance grew faster than expected, and we continue to be optimistic about the growth trend of mass consumer demand for cost-effective positioning and maintain a “buy” rating.
The company continued to show strong growth, and the online search Matthew effect dividend continued to materialize.
We are optimistic that the market share of the company’s core categories will further increase. Emerging categories will continue to grow well. We maintain our profit forecasts for 19 and 20 years, and increase our forecasts for 2021. We expect EPS for the years 19-21 to be zero.
51/0.
65/0.
82 yuan, the corresponding PE in 19-21 is 22/18/14 times.
The company’s account receivables have been further controlled, the balance sheet quality has been further optimized, and the “Buy” rating has been maintained.