Weifu Hi-Tech (000581) third quarterly report comments: heavy truck continued high economic performance in line with expectations
Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income in Q3 of 201919.
16 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.
90%; net profit attributable to mothers4.
70 ppm, a reduction of 7 per year.
Heavy trucks continued to achieve a high level of prosperity and performance was in line with expectations.
(1) Accumulated sales of heavy truck industry from January to September of 88.
880,000 vehicles, a decrease of 0 every year.
8%, of which 23 in the third quarter.
260,000 vehicles, an increase of 3 per year.
Considering the high base in the same period last year, the industry maintained a high degree of prosperity.
(2) From January to September, the company realized net profit attributable to mother 17.
27 ppm, a decrease of 16 per year.
Among them, Q3 achieved net profit attributable to mother 4.
70 ppm, a decrease of 7 per year.
89%; investment income from associates and joint ventures is 3.
31 ppm, a decrease of 10 per year.
With the end of the switch to the Sixth National Standard for Natural Gas Heavy Trucks, the company’s performance gradually became consistent with the industry and basically met expectations.
China ‘s triple-truck governance, infrastructure rebounded, and the prosperity of heavy-duty trucks continued.
As of the end of 2018, the number of Xinjiang triple card holdings was 155.
60,000, of which nearly 85% are heavy trucks with a vehicle age of five years or more, and the demand for renewal of the vehicle itself is strong.
Driven by the policy of the inclusion of the country’s triple card elimination, industry demand will be introduced in the next three years.
Through the loosening of the keynote of policy, infrastructure is expected to pick up, which will drive the demand for heavy trucks in the engineering category, and the industry’s prosperity will continue.
The holdings increased, and the sales center of heavy trucks moved up.
(1) In 2016, the number of heavy trucks held was 5.69 million, and the transportation capacity of super trucks decreased by 20%. The rule of super-effects continued to release the number of heavy trucks in 2018 reaching about 7.1 million. We estimate that the current number of heavy trucks has reached a pivot of 900,000Around.
(2) During this round of infrastructure construction cycle, it is expected that the freight demand brought by economic growth will increase steadily, at the same time, the expansion of capacitive demand caused by the expansion of the industry will weaken, and infrastructure investment will gradually change the industry demand.
Advance to the inventory of the heavy truck industry. With reference to the 杭州桑拿网 second cycle, considering that the energy level of this round of the infrastructure cycle is weaker than the previous rounds, we expect that the impact on the growth rate of the inventory in the current year will be about 2%. It is assumed that the cycle high will last for 2 years.It is expected that the impact on total ownership will be about 4% (280,000 vehicles), and the sales hub will increase by about 4% (3.
60,000 vehicles), the inventory is on the rise.
Environmental protection upgrade is a long-term trend, and multiple businesses continue to benefit.
1) The company’s core business, the fuel injection system business, and the joint venture Bosch Automotive Diesel Business are all highly related to heavy truck sales.
Heavy trucks are the top priority of environmental protection supervision. The adoption of the national 深圳桑拿网 triple truck governance will continue to increase, and the company will continue to benefit.
2) Through the gradual upgrading of truck emission standards, in order to achieve the national standard after the national five and six national standards, multiple systems are needed.
The post-processing part requires the cooperation of multiple technologies. EGR + DOC + DPF + SCR has become a mainstream solution abroad. The company’s diesel engine post-processing business will increase the value of bicycles.
The company’s gasoline catalyst products have now entered the joint venture brand procurement system, and the passenger vehicle business has a lot of room for expansion in the future.
Profit forecast: We expect the company’s net profit to be 21 in 2019/2020/2021.448/22.
03 trillion, corresponding to EPS 2.
28 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk warnings: The national triple-three-phase truck was eliminated less than expected; emission standards were implemented less than expected; outbound M & A failed to meet expectations; passenger car customer expansion was less than expected.