02/28/2021

China Coal Energy (601898): 2018 performance is in line with the forecast; production maintains rapid growth

China Coal Energy (601898): 2018 performance is in line with the forecast; production maintains rapid growth

China Coal Energy’s 2018 results are consistent with the forecast. China Coal Energy announced its 2018 results: a dividend of US $ 104.1 billion, of which + 28%; net profit to mother 34.

3 ‰, + 50% per year, both profit 0.

26 yuan, net profit after deduction to 34.

400 million, ten years + 66%.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, A-share revenue was 27 billion yuan, more than + 25%, and its net profit was -6.

9 ‰, a year / month decrease of 6.

6x / 1.

5x, partly due to: 1) asset impairment 10.

70,000 yuan (impaired fixed assets 8.

6 ‰) 2) Selling expenses 29 ‰, one year / moon +17% / + 14% (total coal sales in the fourth quarter of 18 / weekly rate +24% / + 33%), management expenses of $ 1.4 billion for one year/ MoM + 15% / + 56%.

In 2018, the net profit of H shares returned to the mother was 45 trillion, + 33% a year. The difference in A / H profit mainly comes from the adjustment of special reserves.

Comments: 1) Coal production has grown rapidly.

Commodity coal production / sales volume 7713 attachments / 1 in 2018.

5.6 billion tons, +2 in the past.

1% / + 21%. In the fourth quarter of 2018, commercial coal output was 2130 per second, + 21% per second / + 12%.

From January to February 2019, the company’s commercial coal output was approximately 1554, + 36% per year.

2) The highest temperature in 4Q18, a month-on-month decrease.

In 2018, the company’s self-produced average price of commercial coal was 508 yuan / ton, continuous + 3%, 4Q18 was 460 yuan / ton, year-on-year / -6% /-11%.

3) The overall cost decreased slightly.

In 2018, the unit sales cost of the company’s self-produced commercial coal exceeded 3% to 218 yuan / ton, of which the material cost decreased by 7 yuan / ton, of which 4Q18 was 244 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20% and a chain increase of 16%.

4) Coal chemical prices rose.

In 2018, the prices of naphthalene, urea and methanol increased by +5.

3% / + 26% / + 9%, sales change +50% /-16% /-44%.

5) Cash flow from operating activities + 16% to 204 trillion per second.

Development trend projects and capital expenditures: In 2018, the company completed capital expenditures of 12.9 billion yuan, and plans for 146 trillion in 2019.

In terms of projects, Xiaohuigou Coking Coal Mine with an expected capacity of 300 / year is expected to be completed and accepted this year, and Dahai Power Coal Mine with an expected capacity of 1500 / year was approved in November last year. Guidelines for 2019: Self-produced commercial coal production sales of 8950, + 16%,Unit costs were flat.

The profit forecast company’s 2018 performance is consistent with the forecast, maintaining the 2019 / 20e A-share profit forecast of 0.

32/0.

The 31 yuan remains unchanged, maintaining the 2019 / 20e profit forecast for H shares at 0.

36/0.

35 yuan unchanged.

It is estimated and recommended that the heating season is over, and the outlook for coal prices has been adjusted.

The company’s A-share contradiction corresponds to June 19/20.

4/16.

8 times P / E, maintain neutral rating and target price of 5 yuan, corresponding to 15 in 19/20.

杭州桑拿网6/16.

0 times P / E, there is a 5% drop space compared with the previous.

The company’s H shares can continue to correspond to 19/20 years8.2/8.

5x P / E, maintain neutral rating and target price of 3.

5 investment, corresponding to 8 in 19/20.

5/8.

8 times P / E, a 3% increase from current expectations.

Risky power demand was less than expected; coal prices fell more than expected.